You go. No, you go.
That's the refrain on Capitol Hill, as House and Senate leaders each refuse to make the first move in crafting a bill that can avert the fiscal crisis scheduled to hit next week. President Obama, en route from Hawaii, will land in Washington Thursday morning -- but with Republicans and Democrats not exactly talking to one another, it looks like Thursday will be another wasted day as the odds mount of a historic tax hike setting in Jan. 1.
Though Obama, before leaving on vacation Friday, expressed hope that both sides could come together on a scaled-down package that at least averts most of the tax increases, no compromise bill has emerged. Instead, the leaders of the House and Senate returned to familiar talking points late Wednesday, as part of a drawn-out waiting game with huge consequences. The Senate is waiting on the House, the House is waiting on the Senate, and Americans are waiting to see what will happen to their paychecks in 2013.
Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, in a brief written statement, urged Republicans to pass a Senate bill that raises taxes for households making above $250,000 and preserves current rates for everyone else.
"It is time for House Republicans to put middle class families first by passing the Senate's bill to protect 98 percent of Americans from a tax hike on January 1. The Senate bill could pass tomorrow if House Republicans would simply let it come to the floor," Reid said. "The Senate has already rejected House Republicans' Tea Party bills, and no further legislation can move through the Senate until Republicans drop their knee-jerk obstruction. Right now, the Senate bill is the only bill that can become law, and House Republicans owe it to middle class families to let it pass with Democratic and Republican votes."
House Speaker John Boehner earlier made the same argument about two Republican-passed bills in his chamber -- one extending current tax rates for everyone; the other rearranging the $110 billion in spending cuts set to hit next year.
"The House has acted on two bills which collectively would avert the entire fiscal cliff if enacted. Those bills await action by the Senate," he and other Republican leaders said in a statement. "If the Senate will not approve and send them to the president to be signed into law in their current form, they must be amended and returned to the House."
They said the House would either accept those bills or continue to amend them, adding: "The House will take this action on whatever the Senate can pass, but the Senate first must act."
With each side refusing to make the first move, it may be incumbent upon Obama to give a negotiated bill one last try, presuming he can get all the stakeholders in the same room. Also unclear is what role Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who has stayed largely quiet throughout this debate, may play in pushing for an 11th-hour deal.
A new Gallup poll, though, showed Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about the chances for an agreement in roughly five days. The Senate is in session Thursday for unrelated business, but the House is not. House Republican members have been told they would be given 48-hours notice if they are called back. Considering the time it takes to write and pass a bill of this magnitude, the best route for averting tax hikes may be to pass a short-term extension of current rates with the goal of approving a larger package early next year.
Lawmakers have not even agreed to that, though. Without a deal, more than $500 billion in tax hikes are scheduled to go into effect. This includes increases in income tax rates, investment tax rates, the estate tax, the payroll tax and other provisions. Budget cuts to the Pentagon and other federal agencies threaten to hit government contractors. All together, a prolonged failure to avert these policies could cause another recession, economists warn.
While Reid is in Washington, Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said Thursday that Boehner has not yet left Ohio. Steel said "lines of communication remain open" -- but, reiterating the speaker's position, he said "communication is no substitute for Senate action."